A Look at the 2009-2010 NFL Schedule, Part II

Here are the basic rules that determine what opponents your favorite NFL team faces each new year. Under the new alignment where there are four divisions per conference, with four teams in each division (32 teams total), each team faces:

• each of the the 3 other division opponents twice per season, one at home and one on the road (6 games)
• each team in another division (rotated every year) within the same conference (4 games)
• each team in another division (rotated every year) in the opposing conference (4 games)

As this generates 14 regular season matchups, there are still two more matchups that need to be determined to complete a full 16-game schedule. Each team plays one team each from the two divisions in their conference that are out of the rotation for that year.

I'm going to use the Steelers 2009-2010 schedule to illustrate this. They are in the AFC North Division with the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns. Therefore:

• Six of the Steelers games are two game home-and-away series with each of these teams.
• This upcoming season, the AFC North teams play the AFC West within the same-conference rotation. Therefore, four of the Steelers games are against San Diego, Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City.
• This upcoming season, the AFC North teams play the NFC Central within the opposing-conference rotation. Therefore, four of the Steelers games are against Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit.
• Of the final two opponents, one is Tennessee (AFC South), the other is against Miami (AFC East).

Under these guidelines, the final two teams are really the only ones where there is any "discretion" that can be exercised by the league, as the other 14 are all essentially predetermined from one season to the next. And with these last two games, the NFL gave the Steelers the toughest opponents it could in the form of the divsion champs from each of those divisions. Remember? Last season, the Titans finished with an AFC-best 13-3 record to take the division from perennial champs Indianapolis, while the Dolphins accomplished their amazing turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 division champs ahead of the Pats and Jets. So, based on last season's records, the NFL was actually giving the defending champs Pittsburgh the toughest matchup it could.

I've heard a number of Baltimore fans complaining about their schedule appearing to be harder than the Steelers' schedule; this is because they Ravens, as the 2nd place AFC North team, end up having to play the unlikely 2nd-place teams from the AFC East and AFC South divisions in the Pats and the Colts. I can't say I blame the Ravens for not liking their matchups, but at the very least it should be clear why these are the matchups (as opposed to some sinister conspiracy against them). Frankly, we can probably anticipate these kinds of odd matchups whenever the previous season's playoffs involved changing-of-the-guard type results like we had in 2008-2009 (Titans finishing ahead of Colts, Dolphins finishing ahead of Pats, etc.).

Another factor contributing to the surprisingly easy schedule given to the Steelers for next season (on paper): The AFC West and NFC North divisions weren't particularly strong last year. The NFC North saw only one team with a winning record, while the AFC West didn't have a single team with a winning record. But again, there was no discretion exercised here, it was predetermined that, within the established rotation, the AFC North teams would be playing the teams from these two divisions this season before last season even began.

These are the factors which combine to give the defending champs in Pittsburgh a schedule that has been described as a "guaranteed return to the playoffs." To those who believe this, I say, "Pshaw!" Or something like that, something actually used within the last thirty years. The reason is I truly believe the NFL is a league of parity. Last season's playoff results underscore that fact as well as any. Miami taking the AFC South? Arizona in the SB? There are teams that may have been struggling for the last several years (or more), but there is still a legitimate possibility that they can climb out of the basement, including any and all of the teams on Pittsburgh's schedule. And I am not willing to tempt fate by counting chickens before they hatch. For now, consider me a Pittsburgh fan that will be ecstatic if the Steelers can just avenge the Week 17 loss to Tennessee when these teams line up to start the season on Kickoff Thursday.