And of course, there was a little something called the NFL draft earlier today...

No self-respecting nfl blogger can let 04/25/09 pass without offering up some thoughts on Day One of the NFL draft. Or even an un-self-respecting one like myself. So I'm going to post some random, knee-jerk reactions to some of the draft shenanigans that took place today, not anything comprehensive, as I mean to do a more complete draft evaluation after the event finishes up tomorrow.

• 1.3 Kansas City drafts DE Tyson Jackson. Wow. I knew Jackson's stock was rising these last few weeks leading up to the draft, I even heard the rumor that the Chief were interested in Jackson, but I never thought they'd actually pick him at 3 (honestly, I thought it was a predraft smokescreen). I know he was the consensus best 3-4 end prospect in the draft, but his work ethic has been thoroughly questioned, and that is a significant concern to have over your high first round pick to whom you will be committing tens of millions of dollars. In the end, I'm thinking Pioli and crew must have completed a huge amount of research on him and been absolutely satisfied there was nothing to the concerns.
• 1.7 Oakland drafts WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. Sorry, Raiders, fans, this pick gets my vote for "High First-Round Pick Most Likely To Be A Spectacular Bust". It's certainly not your fault. If Hey-Bey doesn't perform like a high first round pick then it is nobody but Al's fault, and I can do nothing but feel bad for all of you loyal fans that want nothing more for Al to let competent people help him with the team. I fear that this pick has almost no chance to work out. Why? Because even if Hey-Bey turns out to be a great WR and the best one in this class, there is almost no reason Oakland had to pick him this early. I can't think of one single team that would have picked Hey-Bey anywhere near this early. The Raiders could probably have traded down into the low-20s and still gotten their man (Maclin went to the Eagles at 19, Harvin went to the Vikings at 22). Al's apologists might say it would have been difficult to trade out of the 7th pick, but consider Cleveland. Cleveland, picking out of the fifth spot (earlier than Oakland), was able to trade down several times to the 22nd spot and still get the best center in Alex Mack. The only thing that will rehabilitate my opinion of this pick will be the subsequent discovery that (1) Oakland had identified Hey-Bey as the player they absolutely had to have, and (2) Al had good evidence that another team picking soon after Oakland meant to pick Hey-Bey. Short of that, I can't see how this pick at the 7th spot makes sense.
• 1.10 San Francisco drafts WR Michael Crabtree. What a great development for the 49ers, to have the consensus best WR (even with the injury concerns) fall into their lap at number 10, owing in large part to the Raiders' Davis. The Yorks have to be ecstatic that they got Crabtree without having to trade up (and pay more money).
• 1.12 Denver drafts RB Knowshon Moreno. Just in case any Broncos fans aren't sure that Shanahan isn't with the team anymore. There is no way in this lifetime that Shanny would have gone with an RB using a high-to-mid first round pick, not with so many defensive holes, not with what seems like twenty other RBs already on the roster. Look, I know the Broncos had a spate of injuries to their running backs last season, but even the one RB remaining (Peyton Hillis), showed that he was able to produce in the Broncos running scheme, and Hillis starter the season as a fullback.
• 1.27 Indianapolis drafts RB Donald Brown. I am very surprised that, with DT Evander Hood still on the board and RB Joseph Addai on the roster, the Colts went with Brown. I know Brown performed impressively at the Combine, but Addai is still considered one of the good young RBs in the league. Moreover, the Colts have been weak at the DT spot and, not coincidentally, in their run defense for several years now. I can only think that this is some combination of (1) the Colts having some inside information relating to lingering injuries for Addai, (2) the Colts having some inside information relating to factors that will make it difficult to re-sign Addai, and (3) the Colts having some belief that Hood is not the good prospect he appears to be. I'm hoping it is not #3, because Pittsburgh ended up picking Hood. More on that next.
• 1.32 Pittsburgh drafts DT Evander Hood. As a Pittsburgh fan, I am ecstatic over this pick. In my mock draft, I predicted that Hood would be gone by this point (to Indianapolis with the 27th overall pick).
• 2.3 (35) St. Louis drafts ILB James Laurinitis. Hey, I actually thought this is right about where Laurinitis would be picked. What I never expected was that Laurinitis would be going at this spot over ILB Maualuga from USC (shows what I know). With Erin Andrews' dancing partner going three picks later at number 38 to Cincinnati, this completes a stunning fall for Maualuga, who was projected to go as high as number 12 to Denver. I hope we find out what it is that soured teams (so to speak) on Maualuga (because my Steelers will now have to face him twice a year).
• 2.5 (37) Denver drafts CB Alphonso Smith. It's not that I think Smith was a bad pick here, some drafts had Smith going late in the first round. It's that the Broncos traded away their own first round pick next year to get back into the draft at this point to pick Smith. That I don't get. Explain to me how it makes sense to give away your own first rounder for, essentially, a second rounder in a draft that's generally considered to be a weak one when you can't say for certain that your own pick will be a bad one (i.e., you can't say for certain you'll have had a great 2009-2010 season). Goes without saying, Denver must have had Smith rated very highly.
• 2.11 (43) Carolina drafts DE Everette Brown. Incredible good fortune for the Panthers (I think), who manage to arrange a trade with the 49ers to get Brown, projected by many as a top-half of the draft talent, some even suggesting Brown would go in the top ten.
• 2.23 (56) Indianapolis drafts DT Fili Moala. Alright, alright, this largely salvages what I believed to be a bad first pick in Donald Brown.
• 2.29 (61) Miami drafts CB Sean Smith. This is the second high draft pick the Dolphins have used on a CB (their first round pick was CB Vontae Davis). IMO, they have a much greater need at WR. They had another pick between the Davis and Smith picks, the 44th overall pick, which they used on "Slash" type QB Pat White (although I suppose I can see Miami going with Smith as a player that can contribute to the "Wildcat" offense the Dolphins made popular last season).
• 2.32 (64) Denver drafts TE Quinn Richards. I have no problem with Denver's pick here. What I am amazed over is that the Steelers were willing to trade out of this spot for nothing more than Denver's two 3rd round picks 3.15 (79) and 3.20 (84), while also having to throw in their 4th round pick 32(132) to Denver. Referring to the draft pick value chart, the picks obtained by the Steelers from Denver have a combined value of (195 + 170) = 365. The picks obtained by Denver from Pittsburgh have a combined value of (270 + 44) = 314. Pittsburgh is technically ahead by about 50 points on the trade, approximately the value of an additional low 4th round pick, but this is not a ton. What makes this a real surprise to me is the players that were still available at this spot. Among those players are: OG Duke Robinson, CB DJ Moore, and DEs Michael Johnson and Jarron Gilbert. What do these players have in common? Each one of them has been projected as a possible first round draft pick, and each one of them plays a position where Pittsburgh really needs help. I've even seen mock drafts that projected Pittsburgh to pick Robinson in the first round. Not saying I was necessarily pulling for that, but that was in the first round. To see Robinson and these other players available at the bottom of the second is astounding to me. Robinson is generally considered the best OG prospect in the draft, so he could help the Steelers on the O-line, the area generally considered to be the weakest line on the team. DJ Moore could help fill in at CB where Pittsburgh lost starter Bryant McFadden to Arizona. Johnson or Gilbert could help fill in at DE where every starter on our D-line is over 30 (thus, just drafting Hood might not be enough). So, color me curious. But I wouldn't say I'm upset. The reason is, I trust the Pittsburgh front office to know what they are doing here, they have two SB titles in the last four years, they have more than demonstrated that they know their job, their own players, and these prospective draftees. But mark my words, those players I just mentioned will all be gone by the time the first of Pittsburgh's three 3rd round picks comes up.

A Look at the 2009-2010 NFL Schedule, Part II

Here are the basic rules that determine what opponents your favorite NFL team faces each new year. Under the new alignment where there are four divisions per conference, with four teams in each division (32 teams total), each team faces:

• each of the the 3 other division opponents twice per season, one at home and one on the road (6 games)
• each team in another division (rotated every year) within the same conference (4 games)
• each team in another division (rotated every year) in the opposing conference (4 games)

As this generates 14 regular season matchups, there are still two more matchups that need to be determined to complete a full 16-game schedule. Each team plays one team each from the two divisions in their conference that are out of the rotation for that year.

I'm going to use the Steelers 2009-2010 schedule to illustrate this. They are in the AFC North Division with the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns. Therefore:

• Six of the Steelers games are two game home-and-away series with each of these teams.
• This upcoming season, the AFC North teams play the AFC West within the same-conference rotation. Therefore, four of the Steelers games are against San Diego, Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City.
• This upcoming season, the AFC North teams play the NFC Central within the opposing-conference rotation. Therefore, four of the Steelers games are against Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit.
• Of the final two opponents, one is Tennessee (AFC South), the other is against Miami (AFC East).

Under these guidelines, the final two teams are really the only ones where there is any "discretion" that can be exercised by the league, as the other 14 are all essentially predetermined from one season to the next. And with these last two games, the NFL gave the Steelers the toughest opponents it could in the form of the divsion champs from each of those divisions. Remember? Last season, the Titans finished with an AFC-best 13-3 record to take the division from perennial champs Indianapolis, while the Dolphins accomplished their amazing turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 division champs ahead of the Pats and Jets. So, based on last season's records, the NFL was actually giving the defending champs Pittsburgh the toughest matchup it could.

I've heard a number of Baltimore fans complaining about their schedule appearing to be harder than the Steelers' schedule; this is because they Ravens, as the 2nd place AFC North team, end up having to play the unlikely 2nd-place teams from the AFC East and AFC South divisions in the Pats and the Colts. I can't say I blame the Ravens for not liking their matchups, but at the very least it should be clear why these are the matchups (as opposed to some sinister conspiracy against them). Frankly, we can probably anticipate these kinds of odd matchups whenever the previous season's playoffs involved changing-of-the-guard type results like we had in 2008-2009 (Titans finishing ahead of Colts, Dolphins finishing ahead of Pats, etc.).

Another factor contributing to the surprisingly easy schedule given to the Steelers for next season (on paper): The AFC West and NFC North divisions weren't particularly strong last year. The NFC North saw only one team with a winning record, while the AFC West didn't have a single team with a winning record. But again, there was no discretion exercised here, it was predetermined that, within the established rotation, the AFC North teams would be playing the teams from these two divisions this season before last season even began.

These are the factors which combine to give the defending champs in Pittsburgh a schedule that has been described as a "guaranteed return to the playoffs." To those who believe this, I say, "Pshaw!" Or something like that, something actually used within the last thirty years. The reason is I truly believe the NFL is a league of parity. Last season's playoff results underscore that fact as well as any. Miami taking the AFC South? Arizona in the SB? There are teams that may have been struggling for the last several years (or more), but there is still a legitimate possibility that they can climb out of the basement, including any and all of the teams on Pittsburgh's schedule. And I am not willing to tempt fate by counting chickens before they hatch. For now, consider me a Pittsburgh fan that will be ecstatic if the Steelers can just avenge the Week 17 loss to Tennessee when these teams line up to start the season on Kickoff Thursday.

A Look at the 2009-2010 NFL Schedule, Part I

The 2009-2010 regular season schedule was released during primetime television on Tuesday exclusively through the NFL channel, to the dismay of many fans and the disapproval of numerous experts. There was hype, yes, but all in all this was not the monumental event the league may have been hoping for, IMO, because the list of opponents for all teams had already been publicized; the only new information to be gained from last Tuesday is the date and time of each matchup as well as which matchups (tentatively) are scheduled for night time broadcast. Having said that, hardcore fans like myself were still excited to take a look at the final skeds. Rather than reproduce it here, I'll simply note that the full schedule can most easily be found at nfl.com.

Although observations regarding strength of schedule could have been made (and were) prior to Tuesday, the release of the schedule did give rise to a new round of complaints regarding the seemingly "easy" paths given to several teams that experienced success last season, including the Steelers. Strength of schedule for 2009-2010 has been computed by numerous websites, including ESPN (see
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/news/story?id=4027503). The five teams that appear to have the hardest roads (based on their opponents' 2008 records) are: Miami 0.594, Carolina 0.592, New England 0.590, Atlanta 0.588, Tampa Bay 0.580. The first four are all 2008 playoff teams while Tampa Bay missed the playoffs by the narrowest of margins, so not a lot of fans are going to shed tears for these teams this next season. Yet this list does not include any of the conference championship teams. Can you guess where I'm going with this?

(drum roll) Let's look at the five teams with the "easiest roads" in the upcoming season: Chicago 0.414, Minnesota 0.420, Green Bay 0.428, Pittsburgh 0.434, Baltimore 0.438. So, the two AFC championships teams both have schedules in the bottom five based on strength of schedule. Arizona, the SB runnerup, is just out of the top five with the six-easiest schedule at 0.441.

Based on this, I can see lots of fans wondering how this could have happened. Aren't the top teams supposed have the hardest schedules the following season? Shouldn't the struggling teams be given the benefit of easier schedules? Yes, and yes. But it's not that simple.

And now, a quick break from the NFL...

...to get some NBA playoff predictions in. Basketball is a great and wonderful sport that I have absolutely no talent for. When you attempt to play but people tell you, "Er, maybe you should stick to tennis", then quitting your day job to try out for the Celtics probably isn't a great idea. I am genuinely good, however, at watching pro basketball. Especially the postseason. I can watch playoff basketball like nobody's business. Ask my wife and children.

Why, consider just one month ago when I had my best set of March Madness picks ever. Ever. I picked three of the final four: Michigan State, Villanova, and NC (damn Memphis Tigers). I even had the Spartans and Tarheels going to the Big Game (except that I had the hometown team pulling it off). Even with that loss, I still had only twelve missed picks. Total. No, seriously. I picked Western Kentucky and Wisconsin to get out of the first round. I picked Sienna. I picked Oregon to go two rounds. That first Saturday when Obama went 8-0? Yep, I matched the President of the yoo ess ay. Ha ha. We are very much alike, he and I, except that he is amazingly successful, extremely capable, and has more charisma than the demigod Ra. Other than that, you can't tell us apart.

Therefore, I have every confidence that I will be highly successful with my NBA playoff picks. Here they are, winners every one.

Eastern Conference (First Round): Cleveland (1) over Detroit (8)
Boston (2) over Chicago(7)
Orlando (3) over Philadelphia (6)
Miami (5) over Atlanta (4)

Western Conference (First Round): LA (1) over Utah (8)
New Orleans (7) over Denver (2)
Dallas (6) over San Antonio (3)
Houston (5) over Portland (4)

Eastern Conference (Semifinals): Cleveland (1) over Miami (5)
Orlando (3) over Boston (2)

Western Conference (Semifinals): LA (1) over New Orleans (7)
Dallas (6) over Orlando (2)

Eastern Conference (Finals): Cleveland (1) over Orlando (3)

Western Conference (Finals): LA (1) over Dallas (6)

Championship Series: LA over Cleveland

Believe me, I don't like picking the Lakers (hate em'!). Plus, Lebron's had an incredible year, one that causes people to talk about the Cavs as maybe a team of destiny. And I don't think he'll be forced to do it alone like last year. I think Delonte West was a great addition, and I think the rest of the supporting cast will finally show up this time. But I can't pick them over LA. Lordy, the Lakers are stacked, and now they've got Bynum back. That's comparable to, say, Bill Gates winning the lottery. So as much as I'd like to forecast some other team upsetting the Lakers' boat, I just don't see it.

Will some franchise prove me wrong? Please? I promise I won't be mad.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

04/15/09- Eben Britton OT. This was a tough one. Here’s the thought process coming from this avid Steelers fan. The Steelers’ biggest need areas are: offensive line, defensive line, and cornerback, in that order. At this point in the draft, the best O-line prospects are Eben Britton and center Alex Mack. The best D-line prospects are probably Michael Johnson and Larry English, and possibly Jarron Gilbert. The best CB prospects are Alphonso Smith, Shaun Smith, and DJ Moore. I immediately cross out the CB prospects because of value versus need. Yes, Pittsburgh could use a CB to replace Bryant McFadden, but this isn’t a crying need because William Gay has shown some real potential, although the sample size is not big. The Steelers can, thinks I, wait until later in the draft to pick one up. I then cross out the DEs because, although they are good players, neither of them project to effectively play DE in a 3-4 defense like the Steelers use (well, English has a better chance). Both are, in essence, too small to do what Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel do. Gilbert's got better size and physical potential, but I am concerned about (1) off-field issues, and (2) too many scouting reports that knock Gilbert down for poor fundamentals (although these could be addressed with good coaching). In the end, I think these are still too many concerns when you're talking about a first round pick. I suppose Pittsburgh might also think about DT Ron Brace as a future replacement for mammoth tackle Casey Hampton, but the value isn’t quite there. That leaves me with Britton versus Mack. I know, I know, everyone and their dog has Pittsburgh picking Mack. The reason I disagree is that the incumbent center, Justin Hartwig, actually did a relatively decent job last year. In my mind, the clear weak link along the O-line was right tackle Willie Colon. You would almost have to be a Steeler fan to know the frustration caused by Willie “I refuse to memorize the snap count” Colon. He was the worst player along the worst unit on the offense, plain and simple. Colon and the others defied convention when the Steelers pulled out SB43 against the Cardinals; teams simply aren’t supposed to win championship titles with offensive lines of that quality. And now, the Steelers have brought them all back. Okay, fine. I can buy the idea that there will be improvement. Starks was actually decent as LT. Kemoeatu has all the physical strength and talent in the world, he just needs to show (marked) improvement in the mental aspect of LG. C Hartwig, as stated above, was decent, although he did have a tendency to get overpowered at times (thus the temptation to pick Alex Mack). Darnell Stapleton was about as good as you could hope for from an undrafted guard who was thrown into the fire when Kendall Simmons got hurt, I’ll leave it at that. But no one was worse than Colon, who did more than his share to help Roethlisberger get sacked more than almost any other QB in the league. Therefore, I think the pick needs to be Britton, if he’s still available. Yes, he’s marketing himself as a left tackle (good choice), but he actually played RT during his first two years in college, he should be able to slide back into RT without huge problems. And of course, Britton could be left at LT with Starks moving back to RT. See? Everybody wins!

31. Arizona Cardinals

04/15/09- Donald Brown RB. Before the Combine, this pick would have been RB LeSean McCoy, but then Brown had to go crazy in Indianapolis, showing off great physical talent and potential, and its not like this guy wasn’t productive in college. I think he gets the edge (get it?) over McCoy in pushing Edgerrin James out of Arizona, or at least out of a starting spot.

30. Tennessee Titans

04/15/09- Kenny Britt WR. Would you believe the Tennessee receiving corp is also on fire? Not in that good way, no. Their best receiver currently? That would be a toss up between Justin Gage, a chronic underachiever, and Nate Washington, the former Pittsburgh 3rd WR who works very hard for the opportunity to get open and then drop the ball. Given a choice between Smith/Hixon and Gage/Washington, I think I’d actually go with the NY receivers. Therefore, I’m going to pull the trigger here and forecast that Tennessee will go with the speedy 6’4 receiver from Rutgers.