Saturday, April 25, 2009

And of course, there was a little something called the NFL draft earlier today...

No self-respecting nfl blogger can let 04/25/09 pass without offering up some thoughts on Day One of the NFL draft. Or even an un-self-respecting one like myself. So I'm going to post some random, knee-jerk reactions to some of the draft shenanigans that took place today, not anything comprehensive, as I mean to do a more complete draft evaluation after the event finishes up tomorrow.

  • 1.3 Kansas City drafts DE Tyson Jackson. Wow. I knew Jackson's stock was rising these last few weeks leading up to the draft, I even heard the rumor that the Chief were interested in Jackson, but I never thought they'd actually pick him at 3 (honestly, I thought it was a predraft smokescreen). I know he was the consensus best 3-4 end prospect in the draft, but his work ethic has been thoroughly questioned, and that is a significant concern to have over your high first round pick to whom you will be committing tens of millions of dollars. In the end, I'm thinking Pioli and crew must have completed a huge amount of research on him and been absolutely satisfied there was nothing to the concerns.
  • 1.7 Oakland drafts WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. Sorry, Raiders, fans, this pick gets my vote for "High First-Round Pick Most Likely To Be A Spectacular Bust". It's certainly not your fault. If Hey-Bey doesn't perform like a high first round pick then it is nobody but Al's fault, and I can do nothing but feel bad for all of you loyal fans that want nothing more for Al to let competent people help him with the team. I fear that this pick has almost no chance to work out. Why? Because even if Hey-Bey turns out to be a great WR and the best one in this class, there is almost no reason Oakland had to pick him this early. I can't think of one single team that would have picked Hey-Bey anywhere near this early. The Raiders could probably have traded down into the low-20s and still gotten their man (Maclin went to the Eagles at 19, Harvin went to the Vikings at 22). Al's apologists might say it would have been difficult to trade out of the 7th pick, but consider Cleveland. Cleveland, picking out of the fifth spot (earlier than Oakland), was able to trade down several times to the 22nd spot and still get the best center in Alex Mack. The only thing that will rehabilitate my opinion of this pick will be the subsequent discovery that (1) Oakland had identified Hey-Bey as the player they absolutely had to have, and (2) Al had good evidence that another team picking soon after Oakland meant to pick Hey-Bey. Short of that, I can't see how this pick at the 7th spot makes sense.
  • 1.10 San Francisco drafts WR Michael Crabtree. What a great development for the 49ers, to have the consensus best WR (even with the injury concerns) fall into their lap at number 10, owing in large part to the Raiders' Davis. The Yorks have to be ecstatic that they got Crabtree without having to trade up (and pay more money).
  • 1.12 Denver drafts RB Knowshon Moreno. Just in case any Broncos fans aren't sure that Shanahan isn't with the team anymore. There is no way in this lifetime that Shanny would have gone with an RB using a high-to-mid first round pick, not with so many defensive holes, not with what seems like twenty other RBs already on the roster. Look, I know the Broncos had a spate of injuries to their running backs last season, but even the one RB remaining (Peyton Hillis), showed that he was able to produce in the Broncos running scheme, and Hillis starter the season as a fullback.
  • 1.27 Indianapolis drafts RB Donald Brown. I am very surprised that, with DT Evander Hood still on the board and RB Joseph Addai on the roster, the Colts went with Brown. I know Brown performed impressively at the Combine, but Addai is still considered one of the good young RBs in the league. Moreover, the Colts have been weak at the DT spot and, not coincidentally, in their run defense for several years now. I can only think that this is some combination of (1) the Colts having some inside information relating to lingering injuries for Addai, (2) the Colts having some inside information relating to factors that will make it difficult to re-sign Addai, and (3) the Colts having some belief that Hood is not the good prospect he appears to be. I'm hoping it is not #3, because Pittsburgh ended up picking Hood. More on that next.
  • 1.32 Pittsburgh drafts DT Evander Hood. As a Pittsburgh fan, I am ecstatic over this pick. In my mock draft, I predicted that Hood would be gone by this point (to Indianapolis with the 27th overall pick).
  • 2.3 (35) St. Louis drafts ILB James Laurinitis. Hey, I actually thought this is right about where Laurinitis would be picked. What I never expected was that Laurinitis would be going at this spot over ILB Maualuga from USC (shows what I know). With Erin Andrews' dancing partner going three picks later at number 38 to Cincinnati, this completes a stunning fall for Maualuga, who was projected to go as high as number 12 to Denver. I hope we find out what it is that soured teams (so to speak) on Maualuga (because my Steelers will now have to face him twice a year).
  • 2.5 (37) Denver drafts CB Alphonso Smith. It's not that I think Smith was a bad pick here, some drafts had Smith going late in the first round. It's that the Broncos traded away their own first round pick next year to get back into the draft at this point to pick Smith. That I don't get. Explain to me how it makes sense to give away your own first rounder for, essentially, a second rounder in a draft that's generally considered to be a weak one when you can't say for certain that your own pick will be a bad one (i.e., you can't say for certain you'll have had a great 2009-2010 season). Goes without saying, Denver must have had Smith rated very highly.
  • 2.11 (43) Carolina drafts DE Everette Brown. Incredible good fortune for the Panthers (I think), who manage to arrange a trade with the 49ers to get Brown, projected by many as a top-half of the draft talent, some even suggesting Brown would go in the top ten.
  • 2.23 (56) Indianapolis drafts DT Fili Moala. Alright, alright, this largely salvages what I believed to be a bad first pick in Donald Brown.
  • 2.29 (61) Miami drafts CB Sean Smith. This is the second high draft pick the Dolphins have used on a CB (their first round pick was CB Vontae Davis). IMO, they have a much greater need at WR. They had another pick between the Davis and Smith picks, the 44th overall pick, which they used on "Slash" type QB Pat White (although I suppose I can see Miami going with Smith as a player that can contribute to the "Wildcat" offense the Dolphins made popular last season).
  • 2.32 (64) Denver drafts TE Quinn Richards. I have no problem with Denver's pick here. What I am amazed over is that the Steelers were willing to trade out of this spot for nothing more than Denver's two 3rd round picks 3.15 (79) and 3.20 (84), while also having to throw in their 4th round pick 32(132) to Denver. Referring to the draft pick value chart, the picks obtained by the Steelers from Denver have a combined value of (195 + 170) = 365. The picks obtained by Denver from Pittsburgh have a combined value of (270 + 44) = 314. Pittsburgh is technically ahead by about 50 points on the trade, approximately the value of an additional low 4th round pick, but this is not a ton. What makes this a real surprise to me is the players that were still available at this spot. Among those players are: OG Duke Robinson, CB DJ Moore, and DEs Michael Johnson and Jarron Gilbert. What do these players have in common? Each one of them has been projected as a possible first round draft pick, and each one of them plays a position where Pittsburgh really needs help. I've even seen mock drafts that projected Pittsburgh to pick Robinson in the first round. Not saying I was necessarily pulling for that, but that was in the first round. To see Robinson and these other players available at the bottom of the second is astounding to me. Robinson is generally considered the best OG prospect in the draft, so he could help the Steelers on the O-line, the area generally considered to be the weakest line on the team. DJ Moore could help fill in at CB where Pittsburgh lost starter Bryant McFadden to Arizona. Johnson or Gilbert could help fill in at DE where every starter on our D-line is over 30 (thus, just drafting Hood might not be enough). So, color me curious. But I wouldn't say I'm upset. The reason is, I trust the Pittsburgh front office to know what they are doing here, they have two SB titles in the last four years, they have more than demonstrated that they know their job, their own players, and these prospective draftees. But mark my words, those players I just mentioned will all be gone by the time the first of Pittsburgh's three 3rd round picks comes up.

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