Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Return of the Blogger (with excuses)

I can honestly say: I didn't think it would take that long to put my NFL mock draft together. Yep, my own mock draft, forecasting the picks that each NFL team will make during the annual draft to be held two Saturdays from now. Wanting to create and then post my draft projections was actually the main reason I started this blog in the first place. Only, uh, I never thought it would take so long to put it together. I had actually intended to put it up shortly after my last post (back on 03/05/09), but then ran into a ton of elderly ladies that needed my help crossing the street, and that caused me to be delayed until now. Ha ha! April Fools! Oh, wait, I may be a little late on that one, too.

Alright, I'm going to post it in just a minute. Last thing I want to do before putting it up is just quickly explain the "rules" that I followed in making the predictions.

  1. No forecasting trades. Make sense? After all, it's hard enough just to accurately evaluate the relative values of the first round players. It would be even harder to anticipate which teams are going to successfully package picks and/or players to get ahead (or drop back) in the draft. I'm attempting to guess the order of the players only.
  2. Projections are made based on what I think the team should do, not what I think they will do. Because that's what matters, right? Forget what their scouting departments say, my thoughts are of paramount importance here (crickets chirping). But seriously, the only real point of this "rule" is to acknowledge that I don't have the first real clue what each club thinks they really needs (I don't know the salary cap situations, the remaining contracts of their players, etc.). Just in case that wasn't obvious.
  3. As a general rule, teams should build from the front lines backward. Call me old school. I believe that, in general, it makes the most sense for teams to spend their high round picks on the offensive and defensive lines. With the notable exception of QBs, no other position is as crucial to the success of a team than the front lines. Therefore, if I run into a tie between a lineman and a non-QB skill position player, you're going to see me favor the lineman.
  4. If all else is tied, then go with the player I'd prefer the Steelers to draft. For example, if I'm trying to decide between Tyson Jackson (great pick for the Steelers) and Knowshon Moreno (great player, but not a good pick for the Steelers because they already have three good backs), and every else seems even, then I'm going to give Jackson to the team in question. You can probably guess the reason for this. My primary goal in projecting these draft picks is to see if I can get some sense of which players will be available at the time Pittsburgh makes its pick, and I'd rather err on the side of caution than give myself false hope that my preferred players will still be there.

Okay, here goes.

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